Metric reliability
Does a player or team metric hold up from one sample to the next, and how many games before it means something?
You get: reliability estimates, stabilization points, and a short report with reproducible code.
Measurement for sports data
How much of that stat is skill, and how much is noise?
Most sports analytics reports a number and never says how much to trust it. I audit the reliability and calibration of the metrics, models, and assessments that teams, vendors, and analysts rely on, and I explain the results in plain language.
What I audit
Three kinds of questions come up again and again, and each one has a standard, defensible way to answer it.
Model calibration
When your model says 70%, does it happen about 70% of the time? Applies to win probability, expected goals, injury risk, and similar models.
You get: calibration curves, Brier scores, and a clear verdict on where the model over- or under-reaches.
Athlete assessment and monitoring
Are wellness questionnaires and tests measuring what staff think, and is a change in an athlete's score real or just measurement error?
You get: validation evidence, reliable-change thresholds, and guidance staff can use.
How it works
Fixed scope, fixed fee, no surprises.
- ScopeA short conversation to pin down the metric or model, the decision it supports, and the data available.
- AuditI run the analysis on your data, or on public data for a first look. Everything is documented and repeatable.
- ReportA plain-language findings report plus code, so your analysts can rerun it and a coach can read it.
Who it's for
- Sports data and analytics vendors who want their metrics to hold up to scrutiny
- Team and department analysts who need an independent second opinion
- Strength and conditioning and sport psychology staff using questionnaires or tests
- Writers and independent analysts who want to know when a sample is big enough
What I don't do
- Betting picks or guaranteed edges
- Legal or compliance advice
- Black-box models with no explanation
Free tool: Stabilization Point Calculator
How many at-bats or attempts before a rate stat is mostly skill? Enter what you know, or paste player totals and get an estimate with an interval.
The Sample Size Brief
Short, occasional emails on why small samples fool us and how to tell signal from noise in sports numbers. I'll also tell you when the free stabilization-point calculator launches.
- No spam, unsubscribe in one click
- Have a project in mind? Say so in the box and I'll reply personally.
About
Sports Analytics Consulting is run by Nedim Yel, PhD, a measurement and statistics consultant whose training is in psychometrics, multilevel modeling, and research design. The same methods that tell you whether a test is reliable tell you whether a batting average is.